By Shiloh Wittler
Associate Broker
Mason & Morse Ranch Company
The best land decisions are rarely obvious in the moment. Shiloh Wittler of Mason & Morse Ranch Company discusses why ranch ownership, agricultural operations, and land value should often be evaluated over decades rather than seasons.
The best land decisions are rarely made quickly, and they may not seem like the best decision or best value at the time, until ten years down the road. Recently, a landowner and client that I have worked closely with over the years, told me “When I purchased this ranch, I think everyone thought I was crazy and paid too much, but now ten years later, I look like a genius”. Some of the best land decisions didn’t look like good deals at the time. In fact, many of them looked questionable when judged by short-term cash flow. But fast-forward several years, and those same properties became the cornerstones of successful operations and family legacies.
Some of the most effective landowners I’ve worked with share one trait. They don’t ask whether a property pencils this year. They think in decades, not seasons.
They revisit key questions periodically:
- How has the land changed over time?
- What is improving and what is slowly degrading?
- How would this asset perform under different market conditions?
- How does this asset support the operation as a whole
- What would the next generation need or want from it?
- Will the things that are working now still be applicable and appropriate for the next decade of management?
Often, these conversations have nothing to do with selling. They are about stewardship and understanding the asset clearly enough to make the best decisions over time.
With rising input costs and even tighter margins, it’s increasingly difficult to find a farm or ranch that “pencils”, or cash-flows on its own based on historical expectations. This has become a well-known and recurring frustration for producer-oriented buyers in the current land market, looking strictly through and income analysis lens.
But here is the disconnect: most buyers aren’t purchasing a single property to stand alone financially. They are not cash flowing a single property, they are cash flowing an operation. In simpler terms – zoom out. It could be similar to analyzing the annual returns of a stock market portfolio over a one-year period versus a five-year period.
In practice, many large ranches are often purchased by operators expanding grazing capacity, families planning for long term ownership, or investors seeking land scarcity, recreation, and optional future uses. In these cases, grazing income is just one piece of a much larger puzzle, and often not the deciding one.
That’s why traditional income or capitalization approaches to value can be misleading for ranch properties in the current land market. Livestock operations vary widely depending on management style, herd size, rotation systems, water resources, and seasonal use. Many ranches are owner operated rather than leased, which limits reliable, market-based income data. Add in recreational or lifestyle motivations, and the math becomes even less predictive.
Does that mean income doesn’t matter? Not at all. It does little good if a single property purchase leverages the operation far beyond what it can endure. Carrying capacity and income potential still influence value, but perhaps more as indicators rather than as the one and only, definitive pricing tool. They help buyers understand what a property can support, not what it must return in the next twelve months.
Land markets ultimately recognize value through supply and demand. Scarcity, scale, flexibility, and long-term usefulness often carry more weight than near term returns.
Which brings us back to that landowner I mentioned at the beginning. He wasn’t blindly ignoring the numbers, he just understood their limits. He knew that the real question wasn’t whether the individual ranch property penciled today, but rather how does it support the entire operation over the next several years.
In land ownership, and agricultural operations in particular, patience isn’t passive. It’s strategic. And the best decisions are not always obvious in the moment.
About the Author
Shiloh Wittler
Shiloh Wittler is an Associate Broker with Mason & Morse Ranch Company based in Eagle, Colorado. Shiloh has a passion for agriculture and the western way of life, with experience in agricultural, rural, transitional, recreational, and natural resource properties. He has written several posts including "The Colorado Outdoor Opportunities Act (HB26-1008)"
He is also a Certified General Real Estate Appraiser in Colorado, with experience involving conservation easements, water rights, long-term ranch management, and complex land transactions.
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